Ryan Ghan and Turk's Teeth team up to provide a post-draft, post-trade-deadline look at the lottery tickets and green shoots on the Angel's farm. This article examines the second tier of our top 30 Angels' prospects list for the second half of 2014.
Here come the pitchers!
The first thing to note in this middle tier of our second-half Top 30 prospect list – and it's a theme that will continue into our top ten – is that it's almost all pitching. Seriously. A hallmark of the Dipoto drafting era has been to triple-down on pitching, and as a result, there's both depth and upside in the system, even if few of the names on the board are ones that have captured the attention of prospect watchers as of yet.
On the one hand, this has addressed a significant legacy weakness on the Angels farm from the Reagins era, when all young pitchers (especially promising lefties) were potential trade chips for win-now swaps. On the other hand, it's hard to recall a time when the Angels have been this week in terms of position prospects. In 2013, 10 of the Angels' first 11 draft picks were pitchers, and this year, the first five selections were arms as well. It's hard for either of us to find a single scrub who is an obvious MLB regular in the making among the current farm crop, though Delgado below, and one player in our top ten, might have a shot if we squint just so. Otherwise, its arms from here to Iowa, and maybe a few bench types or role-players here and there.
The second thing to note about this list is what a strange mix it is. Junkballing swingmen, under-the-radar fireballers that show the beginnings of the revival of the team's Latin American player acquisition program, and one undrafted and overachieving minor league free agent. There's not a pitcher among them who does not have a few question marks attached, and many would not make a top 20 for even an average MLB farm. But there are some things to like here with each player, and a couple are bound to surprise us and outperform in coming seasons.
11-20
(11) Natanael Delgado (player page)
RG – Just try to throw a fastball by Delgado. Seriously, try it. Chances are, he's going to send a rope through the left side or inside-out a shot to the opposite field gap. He has effortless bat speed, good power potential, and a knack for squaring up heat. On the other hand, throw junk to Delgado, and watch him flail. Delgado's putting up an .868 OPS as one of the youngest teens in the Pioneer League, so has plenty going for him, but has lots of work to do recognizing soft stuff.
TT – The Angels thought well enough of Delgado to bypass their Dominican training facility altogether, and send him to Arizona at age 17. Still only 18, he started off impressively against much older competition in Orem, though has been cooling off of late, and has been out of the lineup for a couple weeks. We'll learn a lot about what Delgado can or cannot do at Class A Burlington, where he's likely to start in 2015.
(12) Drew Rucinski (player page)
RG – Ahh, competence. Despite a deceptive delivery that incorporates an exaggerated shoulder tilt, Rucinski pounds the zone with an average low 90's fastball that can touch 95 mph. He backs the pitch with the full starters' arsenal, including a slider, curve, change-up and occasional splitter. The slider is the best of the bunch, but he's been increasingly effective against Texas League lefties as the year's gone on, corresponding with an immense amount of work on the change-up, so my guess is that the pitch has really improved. There's no doubt that he's going to get more major league time, and could establish himself has an effective middle reliever and/or swingman. He's got an outside shot at having a Shoemaker-like run as fifth man in the rotation if one of his secondary pitches takes another step forward.
TT – Angel fans should ignore Rucinski's wobbly two-inning outing in relief at Texas in July. He clearly had the rookie shakes, but he's otherwise been the rock of Travelers rotation this season over 23 starts. On the other hand, he's been far less effective since returning to Arkansas after his cold-coffee-call-up, with an ERA of 5.40 over his last seven appearances. Fatigue? Disappointment? Maybe a bit of both. Let's hope he regains his stride, because undrafted free agents like this (see Ryan's Shoemaker comp above) are the sort of guys you should root for.
(13) Harrison Cooney (player page)
RG - Tough guy to profile. Huge low-to-mid 90's fastball out of a low-three-quarters armslot with serious tail, making the pitch very hard to lift (.067 iso allowed this year). The fastball alone all but guarantees him MLB time. He throws a sweepy slider that compliments the fastball decently, and his change-up can look good at times too. I like his delivery: it's smooth and relatively low-effort, giving him a chance to remain a starter, though he does have a difficult time maintaining his release point, so his command comes and goes. Until his last two starts, he'd done a decent job trimming the walks down, but his k-rate remains weirdly low. Bizarrely low, because the stuff really does scout better than the below-average whiff rate suggests. The fastball gives him both an intriguing ceiling and a big league floor, but his secondary pitches and command still have a long way to go for him to be more than a middle reliever.
TT – The Ks have been elusive going back to his college years at Florida Gulf Coast, but what's been steadily improving is his ability to land low in the zone and avoid hard contact, with a steady improvement in WHIP four seasons running. ERAs can often be a mirage, but the fact that Cooney is the org's ERA leader currently isn't all smoke and mirrors – he has an unconventional look that is baffling Class-A hitters this season.
(14) Trevor Gott (player page)
RG – At first I dismissed Gott as a throw-in piece to the Street deal, but I'm coming around to the view that he's a legit prospect in his own right. Mid 90's fastball with good life, could be a plus-plus pitch "with more command" according to Baseball Prospectus. They also report a solid to plus curveball. In 92.1 professional innings so far, he's struck out a quarter of the batters that he's faced while inducing a 52% groundball rate. He might have a bit lower ceiling than Alvarez, but comes without the injury red flags, so this part of the Street deal looks like something of a push.
TT – Agree with Ryan that Gott may not have the ceiling of Alvarez in the strikeout dept, but he may prove just as effective. In fact, in the one game this month that the two matched up in the Texas League, Gott won the contest. At minimum, along with Jairo Diaz and Danny Reynolds, he should make the loss of Alvarez and Bedrosian (currently tasting the bitter Salt wind in Utah) a little less damaging to the Arkansas bullpen.
(15) Hunter Green (player page)
RG – Huge vacillations in command and velocity after turning pro are red flags, but a year from now, Green might top this list. Or he never breaks out of rookie ball. He's trying to rehab a back issue now - at least it's not a shoulder or an elbow - and we'll see what he's got when he comes back, which may mean 2015 at this point.
TT – Simply hard to rank this kid much higher when he hasn't thrown a pro pitch in almost a year.
(16) Jairo Diaz (player page)
RG – He hits 100 mph. He's k'd a third of the batters that he's faced so far in AA. His peripherals improve with each promotion. He's exactly the kind of guy who could emerge quite suddenly as a dominant reliever - and soon - so look past the mediocre track record.
TT – He's pitching just as well on the road as in his home park, so he's not just a creature of Dickey Stephens. The improvement appears to be real, and he's succeeding against some of the top prospects in baseball. He's inducing 2 groundballs for every flyball he surrenders, and has only let one fly over the fence once this year in 21 outings with the Travs.
(17) Yency Almonte (player page)
RG – Two weeks ago, I wrote "Twenty years old, classic pitchers' frame, 20% k-rate versus a 7.2% walk rate in the Midwest League. He's posting a better than average 46% groundball rate. Righties fan at a 25% clip against him - a testament to his above average breaking ball - but lefties fan only half as much." Still mostly true, except he's been shellacked twice since then, so his overall numbers look much less promising.
TT – Almonte didn't make my personal top 20, but I can see the upside here. He's struggled to go long in games, and four of his last ten outings were very rough, but between those, he tends to deliver a promising appearance or two that shows you what he might be able to do if he puts it all together. On Twitter, he seems to be a good, thoughtful guy trying to figure it all out at 20, so the makeup seems solid. Matt Wise is a fan.
(18) Michael Roth (player page)
RG – He's thriving now that he's left alone to develop against appropriate competition. Roth manages contact well, posting above average groundball rates (47%) and popup rates (8%), but he's no doubt benefiting from Arkansas' cavern of a park. The other peripherals aren't promising, but a lot of us remain invested in the idea that, in Roth's case, character + left-handed finesse > k/bb ratio
TT – He wouldn't be the first lefty to sneak around in the Majors with a mid-80s FB and "pitchability". Well, for a little while anyway. Roth has already dropped off of many prospect lists due to his 26.2 IP in the MLB. But we keep him on here, because those innings were unkind and Roth perhaps unfairly rushed, and it's still unclear what his ultimate role will be with the big league club. Only drafted in 2012, he's still under 25, so let him be a prospect from awhile longer, until the magic dust is all shaken off, or he finds a niche as a lefty swingman in the 'pen.
(19) Daniel Hurtado (player page)
RG - All of the scouting reports list a mediocre FB/curve/change-up combo. The results are far more impressive, as he's fanning Midwest League hitters at a 26% clip (league avg = 20%), inducing pop-ups at a 14% clip (league avg = 8%), and limiting hitter's isolated power to .088 (league avg = .118). Luck? A big step forward? Stick him in the Cal League, and let's find out.
TT – He gives up his share of hits, but his improvement has been steady level over level, and I'm eager to see what he does against better competition. Hurtado is one of the pitchers I keep trying to find out more about, because I'm just not sure how he's doing what he's doing at the moment. He had a 10 K game against Seattle's affiliate just a week ago, and he seems only to get better as they've stretched him out from long relief to starting. If he had a some more innings under his belt, he'd lead the Angels organization in ERA, and the Midwest League too.
(20) Kyle McGowin (player page)
RG – Damn elbows!!! McGowin started a rehab assignment in Arizona a couple of weeks ago, but hasn't pitched since July 24th, so I imagine he's done for the year. No indication that he went under the knife, but his tweets suggest extended rehab. When on the mound, he's a pretty generic righty - low 90's fastball, slider, change - and he does very well against same-handed hitters. Lefties are a different matter, posting a .794 OPS against, so he's got work to do on the change and command. I think he winds up a middle reliever down the road.
TT – Fifth-rounder in the 2013 draft out of Savannah State, this was a pitcher the organization was very high on coming out of spring training, and they promoted him aggressively. Unfortunately, he went down after a single game at AA, and it really looked like this would be another Tommy John case (and still might be, ultimately). It's a shame, as McGowin would have given the Arkansas Travelers a full starting five of rotation mates (with Nate Smith, Drew Rucinski, Mike Roth, and Tyler DeLoach) who might legitimately see MLB innings in the next year or so.